Impact Evaluation
Roads in Tanzania
Program Description
Tanzania’s compact program has projects in the following sectors: water, transport and energy. In the Transport Sector Project, the focus of the evaluation will be the Mainland Trunk Roads and Zanzibar Rural Roads Activities. The Mainland Trunk Roads Activity will upgrade up to 430 kilometers of trunk roads, Tanga-Horohoro, Tunduma-Sumbawanga and Namtumbo-Songea and Peramiho-Mbinga (on the Mtwara Corridor), to bitumen pavement. The Zanzibar Rural Roads Activity is comprised of upgrading of up to 35 kilometers of rural roads on Pemba Island.
Evaluation Description
The impact evaluation of the Mainland Trunk Roads and Zanzibar Rural Roads Activities will seek to answer the following questions:
- Does a reduction in transport costs and travel times lead to increased access to markets and economic activity in towns/villages near a road?
- Was the project cost effective, analyzed through re-estimated economic rates of return, comparisons to original estimates, and assessment of differences?
Summary of evaluation strategies are shown in the table below.
Table: Summary of Strategies, Comparison Groups and Variables of Interest
| Project/Activity | Proposed Methodology | Beneficiaries | Comparison Group(s) | Variables of Interest |
|
Mainland Trunk Roads |
Difference-in-Difference with Propensity-score matching |
Communities near upgraded roads |
Communities that are matched to the beneficiary communities |
Community-level:
|
|
Zanzibar Rural Roads |
Difference-in-Difference with Propensity-score matching |
Households and businesses near the upgraded roads |
Households and businesses that are matched to the beneficiary households and businesses |
Community-level:
|
Data Collection
The evaluation will use household surveys and community surveys. For the Mainland Trunk Roads Activity evaluation, Economic Development Initiatives conducted a survey of 3,000 households in 200 communities in 2009. For the Zanzibar Rural Roads Activity evaluation, Economic Development Initiatives conducted a survey on 570 households in the treatment group and 630 households in the comparison group. The community survey includes questions on community infrastructure and access to key markets and social services. The current data collection plan anticipates that each household will be surveyed again in 2013. However, this may change if there are delays in the construction schedule.
Timeline
