Tanzania CompactImpact Evaluation for Tanzania Electricity Distribution Systems Rehabilitation & Extension Activity
Project Description
Tanzania’s compact program has projects in the following sectors: water, transport and energy. Currently in Tanzania, industry, businesses, and households suffer from either a lack of energy services or unreliable service. Where electricity is available, the quality of supply is poor, and blackouts and other service interruptions are common. The Energy Sector Project will improve electricity service and coverage in Tanzania through the addition of new power generation, transmission and distribution capacity, as well as through much needed reinforcement of the existing network. The Energy Sector Project is expected to result in improved reliability and quality of electric power, and the extension of service to communities and businesses not currently served. There are three activities under the Energy Sector Project: 1) the Zanzibar Interconnector Activity, 2) the Malagarasi Hydropower & Kigoma Distribution Activity, and 3) the Distribution Systems Rehabilitation & Extension Activity. This page describes the evaluation of the third activity.
The Distribution Systems Rehabilitation & Extension Activity includes the rehabilitation of existing distribution infrastructure and a number of small distribution line extensions to un-served areas in six regions (Mwanza, Tanga, Morogoro, Iringa, Dodoma, and Mbeya) that were identified by the Government of Tanzania as priority areas for investment. By complementing similar projects to be funded by the World Bank in the regions of Dar es Salaam, Kilimanjaro, and Arusha, this activity will address the growing demand and the corresponding strain on the network to deliver reliable and quality power to industrial and commercial users, as well as to households, in these regions.
Logic Diagram
Evaluation Description
The impact evaluation will assess whether access to electricity leads to increased household income, better health and education outcomes, and increased business activity. If it is technically feasible, the impact evaluation will use a regression discontinuity design to measure the project’s effects on households that received increased access due to nearby line extensions. A difference-in-difference method will be used to estimate the impact on businesses near completed line extensions.
To learn more about how access to electricity affects household income, the evaluators will conduct a “subsidy pilot.” The subsidy pilot involves providing partial or complete connection subsidies to a set of households that are near to the new line extensions and comparing their outcomes to similar households without such subsidies and households without new lines. This method would enable evaluators to estimate impacts of two types of access to electricity—increased access caused by subsidies and improved access caused by the combination of subsidies and new lines.
Data Collection
MCA-Tanzania will contract a firm for data collection through a competitive bidding process. More information will be available once the impact evaluation design is complete and the data collection firm is selected.