In simulating outcomes that are targeted by a project intervention, the ERR modeling must remain true to the logic of the intervention and coherently reflect the implications of unserved consumer demand. As observed in the final IDP evaluation, the results of MCC’s closeout ERR analysis fundamentally depended on the development of additional generation capacity; yet, this was not in the scope of the compact, and not reflected in the ERR analysis. On its face, the closeout analysis asserts that load shedding increases over 16 times compared to what it would otherwise had been in the absence of the compact. Yet, the consequences of this enormous deterioration of service are not reflected in the analysis.
Lesson Learned