Use the program logic to calibrate assumptions on reform outcomes and ensure results are both achievable and measurable. Based on the Power Sector Reform Project (PSRP) evaluation findings, program results for key reforms and operational improvements fell short of what was envisioned, and often occurred over a longer time period than expected. For instance, while the electricity tariffs are higher than it would have been without the compact, they have not achieved a level that allows for full cost recovery by Electrical Supply Corporation of Malawi (ESCOM). In addition, given a lack of quality data prior to the compact, there was little reliable information on ESCOM’s costs in supplying power, which limited the ability during compact development to accurately predict the impact of tariff reform activities. As data quality improved throughout the compact, PSRP stakeholders were able to obtain better measurements of cost recovery levels, while also gaining a clearer context for understanding of the likely magnitude of changes. This experience suggests that in cases where reliable data is limited, MCC country teams should make more cautious projections during early program design phases regarding the timing and prospects for reform impacts, and should develop early strategies to gather necessary data to inform target-setting.
Lesson Learned