Evaluations, and the logic and Economic Rate of Return models on which they are based, need to be realistic about when results can be expected. Evaluations should not measure results at the end of implementation but should measure shorter- and longer-term results in line with the land evidence on necessary exposure periods. In 2013, for Mongolia and other older compacts, MCC revised project logic models and related evaluation timeframes which were set for the end of the compact without consideration of when key outcomes were likely to materialize. A longer-time horizon is necessary to look at land governance reform effects and related sustainability.
For legal and regulatory reforms, evaluations also need to consider the time necessary for the legal reform to pass Parliament, establishment of and training on implementing regulations, and behavioral change to take place. The pace of legal reform is unpredictable and often takes longer than expected. The political dynamics are beyond the control of the project. MCC should consider program logics that account for both the desired/ideal reform path, as well as the more likely situation that reforms will take longer than expected. The Registry System and Process Survey was able to measure sustainability and longer-term effects of the establishment of the electronic Property Registry System and decentralization of offices but not of the legal reforms as Parliament passed land reforms after the evaluation had already collected the final round of data. While conducting a follow-up evaluation over five years post-project poses challenges in terms of attribution, it does increase confidence that sufficient time has been allowed for expected outcomes to accrue while also facilitating exploration of the post-project sustainability of improvements.
Future MCC evaluation frameworks are considering longer-time horizons, as well as what outcomes can feasibly be measured based on the expected timeframe for project outputs and government adopted reforms. Some evaluations are also looking at ensuring interim effects are reached prior to measuring longer-term changes. For example, in Indonesia the evaluation of the Participatory Land Use Planning Activity under the Green Prosperity Project in Indonesia is first looking at operationality and sustainability of the district level investments and use of that spatial data in land licensing decisions prior to reviewing land use change.