The carrying capacity of a land parcel and related grazing patterns change frequently based on factors such as rain and land use. In order to understand program driven changes in these variables, more frequent monitoring is required, such as via GPS, and with guidance from sector experts. To monitor herder adherence to the carrying capacity limits on the land, the Peri-Urban Rangeland Project used maps and estimates that had been prepared to aid with herder eligibility and selection. However, grazing patterns and carrying capacity of the land changes from year to year based on a variety of factors including precipitation and land use. Measurement of a herder’s current grazing patterns or of the land parcel’s carrying capacity solely provides a snapshot in time. Carrying capacity is also specific to each parcel of land. Program herders were taught to measure the capacity of the land along with improved herd and rangeland management practices. Each had a business plan and measured their parcels’ vegetation and updated their business plans each year. The evaluation did not use these data points, which could have been helpful for understanding the drivers of herder behavior. The evaluation measured stocking rates based on three static points in time, including a baseline after a dzud (severe winter storm) that had killed many animals. The carrying capacity of the land also was only measured for herder applicants and not all comparisons like neighboring parcels. Together these factors made it difficult to measure program effect on herd sizes and whether in fact herders were maintaining herd numbers within the true carrying capacity of the land, as it had likely changed in the years following the initial program measurement during design and animal numbers had fallen due to the dzud for baseline. In the future, it would be best to bring in key experts in the sector who can advise on better ways to estimate carrying capacity, stocking rates and grazing patterns, including potentially measuring grazing patterns via GPS monitoring. It would also be useful to make use of program data and related updates to land use and updated carrying capacity estimates.
Lesson Learned